6. Will there be an impact on consumer bills?
Electricity and gas prices have risen in recent months, fueling consumer fears. It is therefore legitimate to ask what the gas-fired power plants could change for the portfolio.
It is marked in the government agreement that “The Impact on Electricity Prices” is checked. So this factor could tip the scales.
“Compared to our estimates, the cost of CRM this year will rise to 141 million euros”, Detail Estelle Cantillon. Knowing that this is the first auction, but also the most important, the expert believes that we could be below the estimates initially made Between 238 and 940 million euros for the two auctions. Global, the additional costs for the consumer should therefore be limited.
A forecast shared by Pierre Henneaux that takes into account two aspects: the need to finance new power plants and the impact on the price.
“The new power plants will be financed from the state budget. When considering the price of electricity, it should be noted that the price on the wholesale market is always determined by the most expensive unit currently in operation. in a fifteen minute or one hour pricing system. This entity can be located in Belgium or elsewhere and supply the consumer. We always go from the cheapest units to the most expensive. So when we talk about cost, we’re talking about marginal cost. Renewables are cheapest, then we move to nuclear, coal and liquid fuels.
“As we move away from nuclear power, we need to find resources faster with higher marginal costs and therefore more expensive. How much is it more expensive? It’s difficult to pinpoint exactly, but a study by the University of Ghent was sent to the Energy Minister at the end of September and contained an initial estimate that the fluctuations there remained small, just a few euros per MWh.”
However, according to the expert, the models in this study are too simplified and cannot provide a very accurate estimate. However, they make it clear that the price should not change enormously. “The greatest impact for the citizen, in my opinion, concerns the state budget”concludes the expert.